Most operations manage performance using lagging indicators: monthly downtime, monthly cost per unit, monthly delivery performance. These metrics are important—but they arrive after loss has already happened.
Early-warning indicators are signals that shift before the outcome shifts, giving teams time to intervene. The goal is not forecasting for its own sake. The goal is earlier action.
What qualifies as an early-warning indicator?
An early-warning indicator must meet three conditions:
- It changes before the loss becomes visible in lagging KPIs
- Teams can influence it through action
- There is a defined routine to respond when it triggers
If you can’t act on it, it’s just another metric.
Examples of practical early-warning indicators
Maintenance & reliability
- Repeat breakdown patterns on a critical asset class
- Backlog growth beyond a defined threshold
- PM compliance trending down for critical equipment
- Abnormal delay between fault detection and response
Quality
- Increase in rework loops at a specific inspection gate
- Drift in key process parameters (even within spec)
- Rising exception rate in release documentation
Logistics
- Queue time growth at a dispatch or gate stage
- Schedule adherence degradation over multiple shifts
- Increase in expedited shipments (a sign of planning instability)
Safety-critical operations
- Increase in uncontrolled deviations from standard work
- High-risk permit exceptions trending up
- Repeated near-miss themes with weak closure quality
These indicators work when linked to decisions.
The design pattern: signal → trigger → action
To make early-warning practical, define:
- Signal: what is measured (with definition and data source)
- Trigger: threshold + time window (when it becomes “actionable”)
- Action: what happens next, who owns it, and by when
Example: “Backlog on critical equipment > X days for 2 consecutive days → maintenance planner escalates resourcing decision in daily control meeting.”
This turns analytics into operational control.
Avoid the common mistakes
Mistake 1: Too many indicators
Start with 2–3 indicators that reflect your biggest losses.
Mistake 2: No response routine
If there is no routine, triggers become noise. Tie indicators to daily/weekly meetings.
Mistake 3: Indicators that are not controllable
Choose signals teams can influence through actions, not corporate-level outcomes.
Start small: 3 indicators in 30 days
A practical launch approach:
- Identify one loss area (downtime, rework, delays)
- List likely precursors (signals)
- Select 3 indicators with available data
- Define triggers and action owners
- Embed into daily/weekly routines
- Review results and refine thresholds
Where INJARO helps
INJARO helps define early-warning logic and routine integration—what to monitor, how to trigger, and how to respond. We make it automation-ready by defining data requirements and rules clearly so later digital dashboards or alerts can be implemented by internal IT or an implementation partner.
Early warning is not about perfect prediction. It’s about earlier control.
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